The SADC extraordinary summit on the Zimbabwean crisis has come and gone without an acceptable outcome for the democratic struggle for Zimbabwe. The SADC outcome was indeed a blow to the democracy not only in Zimbabwe but the entire SADC region since the Zimbabwean crisis presented the SADC region with a golden opportunity to reaffirm the region’s commitment to democracy. The matter before SADC was not difficult given that the body’s own observers had denounced the Mugabe only run –off of June as a sham. However, given that the SADC decided to align themselves to the Devil instead of the long suffering Zimbabweans, the question that now emerges is about the way forward for the democratic forces.
GOING TO THE AU AND ULTIMATELY THE UN?
Some political analysts including the MDC are toying with the idea of taking the matter to the AU and perhaps eventually the UN. Although the AU and SADC are the guarantors of the agreement, I don’t see anything of substance coming out of the AU adventure. The AU, because of the democratic deficit in most African countries, some which do not even hold elections will do little but endorse the SADC position. Apart from Prime Minister, Raila Odinga of Kenya who has been very outspoken about Zimbabwe, the democratic forces can expect little substantive support beyond the shores of SADC. Also most African countries are not suffering direct effects from the economic meltdown in Zimbabwe like SADC countries especially South Africa and Botswana who will have to brace for a more wave of both legal and illegal refugees escaping from the hopelessness now gripping Zimbabwe. Therefore in my view, going to the AU will only be symbolic without anything of substance coming out. After all Mugabe is likely to appoint a cabinet before the process reaches the AU on the basis of the SADC resolution.
JOINING THE GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY AS JUNIOR PARTNERS?
Although in the public domain the major problem facing the unity government centers around the Home Affairs Ministry, the truth of the matter is that it goes beyond that to issues of permanent secretaries, ambassadors, governors etc which are all currently appointed by Mugabe.Withiout any MDC influence in these important posts, then the MDC will be ineffective if they join the new government. However, the major challenge is lack of trust among the two partners and Mugabe’s legendary arrogance where he only wants the MDC to legitimize his rule and helping resolving the economic crisis.
However, given the limited options facing the MDC, some analysts argue that it may be a good thing for the MDC to join the government however imperfect the unity deal is and hope to maneuver shrewdly to outflank ZANU PF from within and decisively assume power. Is this possible? In my view, joining the unity government as unpalatable as the agreement is may be the only viable option under the current dwindling options because of the following reasons.
Firstly, joining the unity government and getting serious in re-engaging the international community might avert the ghastly reality that about 1 million Zimbabweans are facing definite death from hunger by January 2009 due to the destruction of agriculture by Mugabe’s failed land reform policies. The MDC can then help in mobilizing the international community to immediately help Zimbabweans with food in a way that will make it impossible for Mugabe to use the food as a political weapon by making sure that the food is channeled through credible non governmental organizations.
Furthermore, the MDC has the moral capacity to unlock international assistance in the area of health and education that has totally collapsed. Although the North is currently facing the worst economic crisis since the great depression, I believe that there is massive goodwill to support the Zimbabwean people if the opposition is part of the government matrix.
Secondly, apart from helping suffering Zimbabweans, joining the unity government may lead to the division of ZANU PF further weakening Mugabe’s grip on power and ultimately the collapse of Mugabe’s party. Already, the former ZAPU elements in Mugabe’s government have been making it clear that they are not happy with the Unity deal since it limits Mugabe’s chances of dishing patronage to them since they have been failing to win elections from 2000 in Matebeleland.More so, this will deepen the succession struggle between the Mujuru and the Mnangagwa faction as the patronage cake shrinks since Mugabe will have to appoint only 15 instead of 31 ministers from ZANU PF.The definite disgruntlement that will result from such circumstances will mean that the MDC may have the space to reach out to moderate and reform minded elements in ZANU PF to eventually outflank Mugabe and his radical clique.
Thirdly, joining the unity government will pit the MDC’s relatively young ministers against the recycled geriatrics in ZANU PF who on average are above 75 years old. Its an open secret that most of Mugabe ‘s radical ministers and heads of the feared Joint Operations Command spend most of their time in South Africa seeking medical treatment from different ailments given their advanced age. This can present the young MDC ministers with the space to run and influence the state .Its an understatement to say the emergence of Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor, the youthful Gideon Gono to actually be the de facto Prime Minister is a result of a power vacuum created by the absence of leaders since most Mugabe ministers are old and tired. The MDC can fill that vacuum and use it to finally assume total power. What will only be needed is for the MDC to be decisive when they get into government.
Fourthly, joining the government may give MDC some access to the security establishment which is the reason why Mugabe has been in power. If the presence of the MDC in government results in visible positive changes, the MDC can have the ability to reach out to the security establishment and create some contacts particularly at junior to middle level that will be decisive in creating change in Zimbabwe. Not everyone in the security establishment supports Mugabe thus they can tape into disgruntled members by showing that they can benefit even more if the MDC is to assume total power.
THE DANGERS OF GOING TO BED WITH MUGABE!
There are also strong reasons why the MDC must not join Mugabe government. The most obvious being that it will be rewarding a looser, a thief Mugabe who stole the people’s vote and thus send a wrong message and set a dangerous precedence in the whole of Africa that incumbents can steal elections and get away with it.
Furthermore, Mugabe has shown a lot of contempt towards Tsvangirai meaning that he only wants Tsvangirai in order to get legitimacy and continue his business as usual anti western rhetoric and human rights abuses.
In addition, there is fear that the MDC may not be able to achieve much if they can not have power to influence the new government to respect the rule of law, respect property rights, re-look the land reform so as to rationalize it, stop corruption et cetera.If they can not influence in the above fundamental issues, then their presence in the unity government will actually lead them to loose support both at home and abroad and the MDC can not afford that at the moment since without international support in particular, they can not achieve anything in that government.
There is also the argument that any government with a Mugabe brand will not be viable since the name Mugabe brings revulsion to everything given the destruction the man has brought on his own country and expecting an 84 year old geriatric to change his spots is expecting too much.
TAKING THE BULL BY THE HORNS, CONFRONTING MUGABE IN THE STREETS?
Another school of thought embraced mainly by civic society is for the MDC to pull out completely from any talks with Mugabe and start mobilizing all its supporters to confront Mugabe in the streets. Already the National Constitutional Assembly and the Woman of Zimbabwe Arise have been in the streets to demand democracy and change in Zimbabwe.
Whilst the expression of people power is important, I believe past experience has shown how vicious Mugabe responds to demonstrations. He just deploys his ruthless militia that will ruthlessly crush and murder unarmed civilians. Although Mugabe’s government is at its weakest, it is very strong in unleashing terror particularly against unarmed people.
Furthermore, the people in Zimbabwe are now very hopeless and hapless such that it will be very difficult to mobilize them in their millions to confront Mugabe in the streets. In fact people are busy everyday scrounging for food to just survive that they are too weak for the kind of rolling mass actions that will likely remove Mugabe from power. In my view, mass demonstrations can only be a part but not the only action needed at this moment in time.
ECONOMIC IMPLOSION LEADING TO MUGABE’S OVERTHROW?
There is also a high possibility that the current economic implosion might explode in the coming three months if Mugabe goes it alone.Withiout a unity government, the possibility of a spontaneous implosion are real. With students not going to school, hospitals closed massive desertions from the army and police as the paltry salaries can not buy anything, Mugabe s terror network may turn against him and overthrow his regime in the coming 3 months. Thus there is a school of thought that the MDC must simply hold on and let the Mugabe regime crumble under the weight of the self inflicted economic collapse. Even the soldiers upon which Mugabe depend on are likely to finally turn their guns on the regime since they will also be realizing that the old man is now a serious liability to their own survival.
The danger with an economic implosion which is just around the corner is that it may be very chaotic and bloody and we may see a lot of fighting thus reducing the already dire situation to some form of Somalia which will not help but worsen the whole situation.
THE WAY FORWARD!!
Given that the MDC won the only free and fair election in March and that Mugabe is in power illegally, it behoves upon the MDC to critically assess all the available options some of which I have outlined above and come out with what is best for the country under the circumstances. However any decision must be based on an end result that will lead to the democratization of Zimbabwe and its emergence once again as the jewel of Africa
