Zimbabwe’s ruling party, ZANU PF, has since the independence campaign in 1980 always relied on violence as a back up in its once well packed tool box. I say once well packed tool box because I believe that prior to 2008, March 29, ZANU Pf used to complement its tool box with a well packed assortment of relevant, well meant, ideological and political promises. Prior to March 29, ZANU PF has not necessarily had a problem with unpacking its assortment to certain quarter of the Zimbabwean masses and it actually appealed. Let me try to unpack this assortment myself lest I engulf in mythology. It was a well packed tool box of food supplements, farming implements, welfarist policies, ideological rhetoric, gerrymandering, Pan African lingo, lectures of historical legacy, promises for a brighter future backed with little coercion when necessary!
The history of elections in Zimbabwe has been dominated by ZANU PF politics either by design, default or by failure of opposition. From 1980, ZANU PF has always found the violence tool useful and handy even when the others could have sufficed. However, since 2000, violence has become more useful than ever with the emergence of a popular opposition movement in the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). 2000 general election and the 2002 presidential elections witnessed unprecedented violence against opposition officials mostly in the urban areas. Important to note is that the regime still had other tools such as the land reform, salary increases and the economy still had a bit of life in it. The media was manipulated and monopolized but still offered glimpse news of the opposition although almost always in bad light. The opposition was successfully barred from campaigning in rural areas.
The 2005 general election also went on relatively peacefully and opposition had some access to rural constituencies. Besides alleged rigging, gerrymandering and monopolization of media, the ZANU PF regime sailed through quite easily and comfortably. SADC guidelines were applied and SADC and AU satisfaction was secured. With the split of the opposition in October of the same year and failed attempts at unity, one was forced to believe that the MDC had no chance in the 2008 election. However, the people had endured enough of the continued suffering. They thought and voted otherwise. ZANU PF, basking in the comfort of a split opposition, fast tracked elections in the midst of mediation talks thought that it was a done deal. They were shocked!
The announcement of questionable electoral results by the Zimbabwe Election Commission which did not show a presidential candidate winning more than 50 per cent of the votes meant a Run-off election was called for. That made the prospect of a total opposition victory possible. Having won most local council elections, being awarded half of the elected senatorial seats and with a majority in parliament, the MDC is almost smelling the coffee of victory. While ZANU PF is startled, shocked and panicking. Their tool box however is empty. The land reform is gone, failed and chaotic. The economy has hit rock bottom and the regime cannot sustain handouts. In fact, it seems the people are fed up with hand outs! Factionalism is rearing its ugly head within the ranks and file of the liberation movement! The people have tasted victory and invincibility has been grossly put in doubt! Surely, given a second chance the people will bury ZANU PF once and for all! One tool still remains at the disposal of ZANU PF and it seems it is the only one left! Violence!
With the limited tools available, ZANU PF has diversified and widened the only tool it has. It has increased its intimidation, violence and killing machinery. The whole security system has been mobilized into a junta, terrorizing the countryside at an astronomic rate! To date at least 55 opposition members have been murdered and still going. Pungwes (night vigils) have been revived and hate language, murder and blood spilling is preached at this gatherings. Army brigadiers, CIO, War veterans and militias have take charge. Interesting or fascinating, is that such is concentrated in formerly ZANU PF strongholds. Mashonaland East, West, central, Masvingo and parts of Manicaland . The idea is to weed out so called sellouts, the torchbearers of opposition politics and leave everyone else in a state of shock and fear and the real possibility of war in the event of an Opposition win! In that sense the 75% yet to be unleashed is now in full operation and implementation!
What then are the prospects of the opposition in the run off? Can the people brave the weather and once again shock ZANU PF. I am of the view that the people shall sustain and consolidate their victory. It is not the first time they have been subjected to violence and they shall defy! In fact, on the realization on March 29 that their vote can actually mean something, it shall save as an encouragement to others who doubted to follow suit.
